FPL captain picksGW10
Deadline Friday 6 Nov, 18:30 UK time. Captain and vice-captain come from different teams. Options within 10% of the top projection are marked as close calls. Only players at 75% or better are considered. Left out through injury: João Pedro (Thigh injury - Unknown return date); Saka (Thigh injury - Unknown return date); Semenyo (Knee injury - Unknown return date); Thomas (Calf injury - 50% chance of playing).
Get this for your own team → See who the top 100 managers captained last week →
Tavernier
Isak
Haaland
Gabriel
Mbeumo
BarrySafe pick
99% of the top 100 own himHaaland 6.4 proj ptsThe highest-projected of the five players most owned by the top 100. About 99% of the top 100 own Haaland, and many will captain him. If you captain Tavernier instead (0.3 pts more projected) and Haaland hauls, you lose ground on everyone who captains him; if Tavernier outscores him, you gain on all of them. Go against the crowd when you need to climb; stick with it when you're protecting a rank.
About the captain picks
Your captain scores double, so it's the biggest single decision each gameweek. These picks rank every available player by projected FPL points for the next gameweek and show the top six: a captain, a vice-captain and four other options, with the reasoning for each. Any option within 10% of the top projection is marked as a close call.
How a projection is built. For each player the model estimates his chance of starting and his likely minutes, then his goals and assists per 90 minutes. For midfielders and forwards, the goal rate mixes 70% expected goals (xG) with 30% actual goals, so proven finishers get some credit for beating their xG, and it starts from the player's own rate last season rather than an average for his position. Assists come from expected assists (xA). Both are scaled up or down by how many goals his team is projected to score against this opponent. It adds his clean sheet chance (for defenders and goalkeepers), bonus points, defensive contribution points and appearance points, and takes into account how many goals his team might concede. A double gameweek adds both games together.
Who's considered. Only players at 75% fitness or better. The vice-captain always comes from a different club to the captain, so one bad team result can't sink both.
Chance of 10+ points simulates the gameweek thousands of times from the same numbers, so you can see who is most likely to haul, not just who has the highest average.
The safe pick is the highest-projected of the five most-owned players. When most managers captain the same player, going against them is a gamble: you gain if your choice outscores him and lose ground if he hauls. Use the projected points as a guide, not a rule.
Questions
- Why isn't my favourite player top?
- The model looks at chances created and conceded, not reputation. A big name with a hard fixture or rotation risk can rank below a cheaper player with a kind one.
- Does it know about press conference news?
- Only once FPL updates its flags. Check the latest team news before the deadline.
- Should I Triple Captain the top pick?
- Not necessarily. The chip planner compares the best Triple Captain options across several gameweeks.