How The Boot Room's FPL Projections Work

Where the data comes from

Everything on The Boot Room is built from official data, refreshed automatically every two hours:

Fantasy Premier League: fixtures, results, each player's expected goals and assists for every match, minutes, starts, bonus, prices, ownership, transfers and fitness flags.
The Premier League injury list: each club's injured and suspended players.
ESPN: starting line-ups and positions from each club's recent matches in all competitions.

Team ratings and fixture difficulty

Each club gets an attack and a defence rating from its recent matches: expected goals (xG) and actual goals for and against, weighted equally, with recent matches counting most and an allowance for home advantage. Early in the season the ratings are pulled towards the league average until there are enough matches to trust.

Fixture difficulty rates the opponent only: the points an average team would expect against them, home or away, so their attack and defence count equally. Fixtures are split into five equal bands, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).

Player projections

For each fixture, a player's projected FPL points come from his chance of starting and expected minutes, his goals and assists (from his xG and xA per 90, scaled by how many goals his team is projected to score; for midfielders and forwards the goal rate mixes 70% xG with 30% actual goals), his clean sheet chance, his bonus rate, defensive contribution points and appearance points, less an allowance for goals conceded for goalkeepers and defenders. Availability flags reduce a player's projection, and recover gradually for later weeks. A player's numbers are pulled towards a starting point until he has played enough minutes: for midfielders and forwards his own goal rate last season (if he played 900 or more league minutes), otherwise a typical value for his position.

Predicted line-ups

Each player's chance of starting comes from his club's last six matches in all competitions, with recent matches and league or European games counting most, and a boost for starting two of the last three. Players are placed in the shape the club used in its last main match.

How accurate is it?

We save our advice before every deadline and score it once the gameweek has been played: see How we did, good weeks and bad.

What the model can't see

Press conferences, tactical changes, a manager's preferences, weather, or anything that hasn't yet shown up in the data. It also ignores price, except where a list says otherwise. Use it as a well-informed shortlist, not a final answer.

Glossary

Terms used across the site. Anywhere you see a dotted underline, hover over or tap the word for its meaning.

Football terms

Gameweek: One round of Premier League fixtures, usually one match for each club.
xG: Expected goals: how many goals a team's or player's chances were worth, based on where and how they were taken.
xGA: Expected goals against: the xG of the chances a team allowed.
xA: Expected assists: how likely a player's passes were to lead to a goal.
xGI: Expected goal involvement: a player's expected goals plus expected assists.
xPts: Expected points: the league points a team would take on average if each match were replayed with the same chances.
Clean sheet: A match in which a team doesn't concede.
Fixture difficulty: How hard an opponent is, from 1 (easy) to 5 (hard), based on their recent form, home or away.
Double gameweek: A gameweek in which a club plays twice, usually when a postponed match is rearranged.
Blank gameweek: A gameweek in which a club has no league match, usually because of a cup tie.

FPL terms

FPL: Fantasy Premier League, the Premier League's official fantasy game. Managers pick 15 real players and score points from their matches.
Projected points: The FPL points our model expects a player to score, from his chance of playing, his opponent and his recent numbers.
Fitness flag: FPL's estimate of a player's chance of playing: 75%, 50%, 25% or 0% (out).
Captain: The FPL player whose points are doubled for the gameweek. The vice-captain takes over if the captain doesn't play.
Ownership: The share of all FPL managers who have a player in their team.
Effective ownership: Ownership that counts a captain twice (three times with Triple Captain) and a benched player not at all. Above 100% means the group gains from his points even if you own him.
Template: The players most managers own. Owning them keeps you level with everyone else; missing one is a gamble.
Differential: A player few FPL managers own, so his points gain you ground on most rivals.
Bonus points: One to three extra FPL points for the best performers in each match.
Defensive contribution: Two extra FPL points for a player who makes enough tackles, interceptions, clearances and blocks in a match.
Chip: A one-off FPL boost. Each chip can be used once before the end of December and once after.
Wildcard: An FPL chip that lets you make unlimited free transfers, and keep the new team.
Free Hit: An FPL chip that gives you unlimited free transfers for one gameweek, after which your old team returns.
Bench Boost: An FPL chip that counts your four substitutes' points as well as your starting eleven's for one gameweek.
Triple Captain: An FPL chip that triples your captain's points for one gameweek instead of doubling them.
Free transfer: A change to your FPL team that costs no points. Extra transfers cost four points each.

Questions

Why do the numbers change during the week?: Every refresh brings new results, fitness flags and line-ups, and the projections update with them.
Is it the same model on every page?: Yes. Captain picks, transfer tips, price-change value, line-ups and the chip planner all use the same projections.
Who runs The Boot Room?: An independent FPL player. It's a fan project and isn't affiliated with the Premier League.

How it works